How it works

Plain answers, no secret sauce.

The data

Every UFC fight since 1994, round by round: significant strikes landed and absorbed, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts, plus each fighter's height, reach, stance and age.

The model

For each fighter we build a profile from their previous UFC fights only: a rating that rises and falls with every result, striking output and defence per minute, wrestling numbers, finishing rate, how they've been finished, current streak, recent form and time since their last fight. The model compares the two profiles and gives a win chance.

Fighters making their UFC debut have no UFC history yet, so those predictions are close to 50% and marked low confidence.

How we test it

• No peeking. To test a year, the model is trained only on fights before it.
• Calibration. A 70% chance should win about 70% of the time. We publish that check.
• Against the market. We compare with the bookmakers' closing odds, the hardest benchmark there is, and publish the result even though the market currently wins.
• Locked picks. Live picks are logged with a timestamp before the fight and never edited.

What we don't do

We don't take bets, sell "locks", or promise profit. CageIQ is analysis. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose.